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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."